Since 1971, Japan has begun to make predictions on the direction of future technological development, and it will be conducted once every five years thereafter. The latest one is the seventh technical development trend that was completed in 2001. The seventh technology development trend outlook (NISTEP 2001) is conducted using the Delphi method. The forecast period is 2001-2030. This is the latest technological outlook result that is the world's second only to the UK. The following analysis and induction can enhance our understanding of the world's technological development trends.
The areas covered by Japan's technology development trends in 2001-2030 are divided into two parts: technology and needs. The technical part is divided into 14 areas and the demand part is divided into 3 areas.
This technology development trend has three new technological areas: distribution, business and management, and services.
To propose and divide scientific and technological issues, the socio-economic experts in the demand field first put forward the possible areas of demand in the future, and then hand those areas to experts in the field of technology. Based on this, experts in the field of technology formulate the scope of the survey and propose A preliminary framework for science and technology issues.
A total of 1065 issues were designed in this perspective, roughly dividing the level of technological development into four levels: “clarificationâ€, “developmentâ€, “real application†and “universal application†to accurately describe the development of each issue. . Unless otherwise specified, the earliest time for the achievement of the topic is on a global scale. In the survey of experts in various fields, including the importance to Japan and the expected results (such as contribution to socio-economic development, contribution to problems around the world, meeting people's needs and enhancing human wisdom, etc.), anticipation The time of occurrence, current leading countries and other issues.
The importance of information technology will be reduced after 2010 to facilitate the description of the importance of future technology trends. The technological development prospects for the period 2001-2030 have also made relevant surveys. In this relatively simple survey, the time to be expected is first divided into two periods: before 2010 and after 2010, and the proposed 17 areas are regrouped into 6 larger areas.
The survey results show that before 2010, the three most important technology areas for the future of Japan were: "Earth and the Environment," "Information Technology," and "Life Sciences." Of all the experts surveyed, 90% of experts believe that these two technology areas must be listed as the two most important technologies. What is interesting is that the sum of the importance scores of the remaining three areas does not reach one-third of the sum of the first three items. Material technology has not only failed to enter the top three, but the importance score is far from the top three. In the past 20 years, Japan has ranked last in the importance of manufacturing and management beyond the United States.
Surprisingly, the change in the importance of information technology. The second most important information technology before 2010 has already been ranked fifth.
The reason behind the change in the report is explained as follows: IT technology will gradually merge into other technology areas after ten years, that is, after the semiconductor and computer technologies are mature, related technologies will be integrated into other applications. In China, IT itself is no longer the focus of technology.
The enlightenment of Japan’s achievements on China’s development is that China’s future development in the IT field must begin with technological innovation in cross-technical areas, rather than just maintaining the vertical upgrading of information technology or the development of so-called key technologies.
The response of science and technology to the needs of human beings The topics in the survey asked the experts to assess the impact of various issues from the following aspects, including contributions to socioeconomic development, contribution to solving problems around the world, meeting people’s needs, and enhancing humankind There are four aspects such as wisdom.
The survey results show that the areas that have contributed most to socio-economic development are: business and management, electronics, manufacturing, and materials and processing; and the first four areas that best meet people’s needs are health and medical services, services, information and Communication and life sciences.
From the above findings, it can be concluded that information and communications, health care, and life sciences are basically the mainstream of future global market demand that Japanese experts believe. Some of the most contributing topics to socio-economic development are basically tools or material technologies that can be considered as key technologies for achieving the above-mentioned mainstream needs. That is to say, the tools needed to meet final demand are management, manufacturing, electronics, and materials. And other related basic technologies. After sorting out, we found that the most important top 20 items that meet people's needs are expected to all occur after 2010. (To be continued)
Japanese Technology Development (I)
March 22 20:06:53, 2024
Standing Desk,Electric Standing Desk Frame,Electric Adjustable Height Desk,Height Adjustable Standing Desk,Standing Desk Adjustable Suzhou Uplift Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.officestandingdesk.com