Source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Looking back at the price trend of waste yellow paper and book paper in 2018, we found that the price of national waste yellow paper paper fluctuated greatly. In the first half of the year, the foreign waste policy was intensively introduced, and the price fluctuated upward. Due to the impact of the May 2 import and export inspection and the 30-day suspension of CCIC certification, the average monthly price of the national waste yellow paper rose to a maximum of 3043/ in the whole year. In the second half of the year, it should be the peak season for consumer demand, but the departure of speculative atmosphere, the shrinking of rigid demand and the pressure of finished paper and other factors have caused the price of national waste yellow paper to fluctuate and fall, and the average monthly price fell to full in December. The annual minimum is 2007/ton.

Compared with the trend of national waste yellow paper, the price trend of book paper is relatively flat throughout the year. Among them, the sharp increase in the price of yellow paper in May did not lead to a rise in book paper, and in the summer of July and August, the traditional supply peak season did not appear to be oversupply and the price dropped significantly. In November, when the downstream also faced poor demand, the price of synchronous yellow paper showed a significant decline, and the average monthly price fell to a minimum of 2,295/ton in the year.

At present, the Spring Festival holiday has ended, most paper mills have resumed the procurement of waste paper, and the price trend has been receiving much attention. Xiao Bian believes that the price of waste paper in the country may rise in the near future. The main reasons are as follows:

1. The volume of market circulation decreased significantly

Combined with the above figure, we found that the price of the national waste yellow paper and the national waste paper in 2018 was upside down for about 5 months. During this period, the waste of the national waste paper was seriously affected by its erosion. According to the research, some paper mills have reserved the waste paper stocks in advance before the Spring Festival holiday, but the arrival volume and stocks are limited, and the suppliers generally reflect that the receiving volume is not much. Due to the long-term upside down of the price of the whole market last year, the volume of paper waste in the national waste book has been significantly reduced, which is good for the price of waste paper.

2. Yellow paper price may go up

At present, the paper mills have basically resumed production, demand has been released centrally, and supply recovery has been relatively slow, and with the impact of the new capacity of some large-scale paper enterprises in the first half of the year, and the expectation that the external waste policy will continue to tighten in 2019, The market speculative operating atmosphere may resume again, which is favorable for the price of scrap yellow paper. The good trading atmosphere of the national waste yellow paper, especially the price increase or the price is reversed with the price of the book paper, both have a favorable impact on the price of the national waste paper.

3. Zhejiang Fuyang Paper Enterprise Teng Deferred Period

Zhejiang Fuyang Paper Mill is intensive and has always been an important market for the demand for waste paper. According to the previous demolition plan, there should be a number of paper mills completely retired before the festival. However, due to problems such as insufficiency of compensation, many paper mills have suspended production plans. It is understood that most paper mills have delayed production until May of this year. Therefore, the demand for waste paper in the first half of the year will not be significantly reduced. The price of waste paper in the country.

Based on the above factors, it is expected that the price of short-term national waste book paper may be slightly higher.

Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan

This article is posted on this website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.

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