Part I Printing and Image Communication Industry III. Prospects for Commercial Printing in 2002
Commercial print predictions for 2002 and later years face two grim facts.
First, the U.S. economy is in recession. In fact, this phenomenon appeared as early as the 9/11 incident. Even without the disaster, there will be no healthy sales growth and significant print profits before the spring of 2002. And now it will only be extended to the summer of 2002.
Second, although the temporary recession in the economy is painful, it does not mask the long-term development opportunities of the industry. These opportunities include:
l. We can provide customers with more extensive communication services than ever before;
2. New technologies—where the Internet is the most important—support faster, more efficient traditional lithography services and related services, from database management to one-stop service.
3. We can serve diversified customers earlier and deeper and longer, and improve our own diversified value services, and move from pure printing providers to providers of information exchange solutions.
The challenge for each printing company is to pay attention to and take as much as possible the opportunities that may arise, regardless of what happens today. Continuously accumulate and prepare for these opportunities and long-term goals in the industry. When making short-term decisions, you must keep in mind long-term goals and ensure that tomorrow's competitiveness will not be undermined by a decision you make today.
This is not a simple matter. If there is one thing that has not changed for the printing industry, it is our dependence on the economy. In the past 18 months, the economic situation has clearly deteriorated.
The growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2000 was a strong 5.65, and the sales of the 300 member companies in the NAPL Association Commercial Printing Alliance steadily increased by 7.3%. By the end of 2000, the economic growth rate had dropped to just 1.9%, and the sales performance of member companies had also dropped accordingly. By the third quarter of 2001, GDP had a negative 0.4% increase, and the sales of the surveyed printing companies also fell to a negative 5.5%. (Note: GDP values ​​take into account inflation, while sales do not take into account inflation)
For some time last summer, the business indicators of the NAPL printing industry showed signs of a slow climb from a declining state in the spring. However, everything changed after the 9/11 incident:
1. After September last year, only 11.1% of surveyed printing companies expect their business conditions to improve in the next six months, and less than one-third of companies (38.9% at the highest level) believe that business conditions It will also decline. In just one month, companies that think things will improve will fall from the original 34.9% to 16.5%. This level of confidence in the company and the degree of trust of customers are a major hit, which is the worst thing in 11 years.
2. Only 6.4% of NAPL member companies reported an increase in their business in September 2001, a sharp drop from the 19.4% in August, which is the lowest record. On the contrary, 46.4% of companies reported a decline in their business in September, a substantial increase from 33.2% in the previous month, which is the highest record. In the words of a printing company, “Customers are pushing the printing companies to operate, but they are not sure when they will have the printing needs.â€
3. In the NAPL member companies, only 20.7% of the companies reported increased business volume in September, while 47.7% decreased their business volume. Companies that reported a rise in business volume a month earlier accounted for 38.5% of the total, which was the first time in several years that the number of reporting businesses decreased (35.2%).
Some figures indicate the status of the printing industry:
1. For the whole year of 2001: The decrease in printing sales was between 2.5% and 3.0%. The total sales for the whole year ranged from 87.1 to 87.6 billion U.S. dollars, down from 89.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2000.
2. In the first half of 2002: sales will continue to decline by 0.4% to 1.6%. The decline rate reached the maximum in the first quarter.
3. In the second half of 2002: After the middle of the year, a very meaningful economic recovery began, and it gradually stabilized until the fourth quarter. The increase in print sales from July to December will be between 3.5% and 4.7%. The economic improvement in the second half of the year led to a year-on-year increase in print sales of 1.0% to 2.2%.
4. The whole year of 2003: The economic recovery received a huge boost, resulting in an increase of 6.4% to 7.6% in print sales, making it the fastest-growing period since the mid-1990s. The total value of printing sales reached 93.5 billion to 96.2 billion US dollars.
The forecast of economic conditions is often very complicated. Due to the greater impact of digitalization on the economy and the printing industry, two years are predictable for longer years.
However, due to the two reasons we explained at the beginning, it is predicted that the future development will be more complicated than ever. First of all, no one can really know the exact time and ultimate effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary stimulus factors that were passed from Washington. Second, and more importantly, we are facing something that is inherently unpredictable: the consequences of the war are different from those experienced in the United States before.
However, we know that printing companies still have many opportunities, just as one surveyee stated in the NAPL 2001-2002 State of the Industry Report: “The image communication solution provider will have a huge Change, but printing companies that think and work like traditional printing companies will not change much.â€
Nearly half of the respondents in the survey report plan to add a new service in the next two years. More than a quarter of companies plan to add at least two services. When we asked what the greatest need was, some companies cited a wide variety of services ranging from art, design, production to equipment management. More than 70.0% of companies listed more than one type of service; more than 45.0% of companies cited more than two types of services.
As we know, opportunities often exist outside the traditional market, requiring actual investment in equipment and personnel, and finding the best way to solve difficult problems. Despite this, a large part of the respondents in the representative cross-sector printing technology companies, representing all companies with annual sales of less than US$200,000 to more than US$200 million, are still optimistic about the future and made Various plans intend to seize these opportunities. At the same time, they also see great challenges. They know that repositioning the company's business is not easy. But they are very confident about this, and it is also very practical. This is the best reason to maintain self-confidence.
Note: This article is selected from the NAPL 2001-2002 industry status report.
2002 Commercial Printing Outlook
December 20 15:07:24, 2023
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