Paper price is stable during paper order
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1 This week, the papermaking sector performed weaker than the market. After continuous strength, the papermaking sector fell 4.97% this week (key companies fell 5.96%) due to lack of fundamental support, significantly weaker than the market (CSI 300 fell 2.85%).
2 The paper price is stable during the paper ordering session. The price of coated paper remained stable this week. The Nanchang Paper Ordering Conference was held. Most of the dealers suspended the transaction and attended the meeting. The paper price remained basically stable. The price of double-adhesive paper remained stable this week. Purchase orders for spring textbooks in Henan and Hunan were implemented, and market demand increased slightly. However, due to the flat demand, paper prices remained stable. The price of gray-white board paper was stable this week. Near Christmas, the export volume of whiteboard paper increased slightly from the previous period. White cardboard prices have stabilized this week. The Nanchang Paper Ordering Conference was closed. At the meeting, the paper mill was worried about the current oversupply market, revealing the intention to turn to unsaturated areas such as liquid packaging and food-grade cardboard. The transaction price of cardboard paper and corrugated paper was stable. The increase in the price of imported waste paper and the price of waste OCC in the past few weeks has increased the pressure on paper mills. There has been no price increase and the market price has stabilized.
3 The international pulp price rose, the domestic market was basically stable; the US waste ONP price remained stable and the OCC fell. During the paper ordering period, the domestic pulp market was light, and the price remained basically stable. Because the current US waste orders will arrive in the first half of January, the ring guarantee update problem has a greater impact on the paper mill, and some paper mills' purchasing intentions have weakened recently.
4 Please pay attention to the “Review of the performance of the papermaking light industry sector in the third quarter of 2012 and the industry perspective in November – optimistic about the performance to determine growth, pay attention to the year-end profit bottomingâ€. (1) Papermaking: Q3, a large industrial paper company, is at the threshold of profit and loss, and the improvement of Q4 is expected to be limited. The revenue of key companies 12Q1-3 increased by 6.1% year-on-year (new production capacity pushed up sales, paper prices fell significantly year-on-year), and net profit decreased by 71.5% year-on-year. The earnings of major listed companies were basically in line with our expectations, but were significantly lower than market expectations. The weak terminal demand made the off-season even weaker, the gross profit margin further narrowed, and the financial expense ratio remained at a high level. Corporate profits were at the critical point of profit and loss, and some enterprises relied on government subsidies and other non-operating income to achieve single-quarter earnings. Q4 With the arrival of the peak season and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, earnings are expected to rebound from the previous quarter, but the range is limited (if the provision for impairment at the end of the year, the chain ratio may continue to decline). In the long run, paper companies PB are in the bottom of history, and industrial capital intervention helps to confirm the bottom of the valuation. Domestic paper companies have a relatively stable profitability due to the relatively stable demand for terminals and the benefits of low-cost pulp raw materials. (2) Packaging and printing and mass consumer goods: The performance growth is relatively stable.
Partly benefited from the better-than-order (or thicker) orders, and the faster growth of revenue; partly benefited from the use of low-priced raw materials, the gross profit margin rebounded. (3) Domestic sales of light industry: Optional consumption was affected by economic lag and high base. The year-on-year revenue growth rate continued to fall; rigid cost expenses dragged down further profit. (4) Foreign sales of light industry: rising costs and high profit pressure. The Canton Fair data shows that future orders are still not optimistic.