Source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Analysis on the price trend of China's imported wood pulp spot market

In 2018, the spot market price of imported wood pulp was affected by abundant supply, weak demand and macro factors. The price continued to decline, but it was still at a high price in the past five years. The reasons for the price trend are mainly the price decline in the first half of the year due to the early digestion of the downstream orders in the fourth quarter of 2017 and the arrival of wood pulp supplies in Hong Kong; the Qingdao Shanghe Summit, the Brazilian truck driver strike, the RMB depreciation, the external disk firm and the US side The trade disputes caused by the support of the pulp market, the price of pulp rose slightly in the third quarter, the average price in September increased by 1%-7% compared with the average price in June; the downstream demand continued to be weak during the year, leading to the early season of the price in September. Downside situation.

Overall, the annual average price of imported softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp and natural color paste in 2018 is at a high average price in the past five years, which is 13%, 6%, and 18% higher than the average annual price in 2017. The average annual price of chemical pulp spot decreased by 4% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the poor shipment of raw paper from downstream paper mills and the low enthusiasm of raw materials.

In the past five years, the lowest annual average price of softwood pulp and broadleaf pulp appeared in 2016. The lowest annual average price of natural pulp and chemical pulp appeared in 2015. In 2018, softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp and natural color paste The average annual price of chemical pulp increased by 45%, 41%, 58% and 46% respectively from the lowest point.

Analysis of the main driving factors on the price impact of 2019

In 2018, the price trend of pulp is mainly affected by domestic and international economic trends, new domestic and foreign production capacity, mixed waste paper import policy, and environmental protection policies. As the prices of chemical accessories have risen, the cost of each product is under pressure, although it is imported in 2018. The price of wood pulp is stable and downward, but the overall price is still at a high level in the past five years. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on pulp prices in 2019, and the industry is not obvious. However, it is worth mentioning that the floating needle futures market was listed on the 27th of November, 2018 in the previous period, the traditional pulp model superimposed on financial attributes, or added a market hedging tool.

Price driver influence intensity table

Outlook outlook

In 2018, the spot market price of imported wood pulp was mainly due to the downward trend. However, due to the rapid increase in prices in 2016-2017, the price of pulp was at a high level, which has obviously affected the production and profits of paper mills, resulting in the purchase of raw materials from paper mills. The enthusiasm is low.

In 2018-2019, the newly added capacity at home and abroad continued to be released. The broad-leaf pulp was mainly used. The new capacity of the softwood pulp was not much. At the same time, in order to effectively control the cost, the paper mill's acquisition of the pulp mill further increased the concentration of upstream supply. The new capacity of wood pulp as raw material in China's downstream is relatively small, and the low utilization rate of the original production line indirectly affects the pulp consumption rate. It is expected that the supply and demand of China's pulp market will be weakly balanced in 2019, and the price will be difficult to reach 2018. High position.

Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan

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